What I am saying here is not completely new. However, there is something about the way polls have been used this year which seems to have a new edge to it. We have been seeing polls used for political purposes ever since Thomas Dewey was the first candidate to establish his own in-house polling unit in the 1948 Presidential campaign.
Over the past several days newspapers such as The New York Times and The Washington Post, have in one way or another utilized polling to virtually declare a Republican sweep. One newspaper yesterday actually had a headline congratulating them!
However, Sam Wang of Princeton University points out polls in mid-term elections are significantly less reliable than those in Presidential years (which are still not completely accurate). And when you have "ouliers" such as Fox polling and Rasmussen polling, even the polling of the aggregators (those "polling the polls"), seems unreliable.
I'm not going to attempt over the next two days to keep up with polls. If I see something which is especially accurate or noteworthy I will, of course, pass it on. But for now, the poll regime, as it were, has come to be used as a tool for maintaining one's preconceived narrative -- in this case a Republican sweep is coming. Remember: the Republican sweep is imaginary -- for now, and maybe for good.
Over the past several days newspapers such as The New York Times and The Washington Post, have in one way or another utilized polling to virtually declare a Republican sweep. One newspaper yesterday actually had a headline congratulating them!
However, Sam Wang of Princeton University points out polls in mid-term elections are significantly less reliable than those in Presidential years (which are still not completely accurate). And when you have "ouliers" such as Fox polling and Rasmussen polling, even the polling of the aggregators (those "polling the polls"), seems unreliable.
I'm not going to attempt over the next two days to keep up with polls. If I see something which is especially accurate or noteworthy I will, of course, pass it on. But for now, the poll regime, as it were, has come to be used as a tool for maintaining one's preconceived narrative -- in this case a Republican sweep is coming. Remember: the Republican sweep is imaginary -- for now, and maybe for good.
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